Johnson and Anderson have highest name ID and favorability. Franklin's low recognition (61%) limits ceiling. Roberts' high unfav relative to name ID signals vulnerability.
Ballot Scores
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Initial Ballot
Smith (R)
43%
Roberts (D)
40%
Franklin (I)
3%
Undecided
14%
Smith +3
Outside margin of error
Key Battlegrounds
Indep/Oth30% / 32%Roberts +2
Female42% / 40%Smith +2
35-4440% / 40%Tied
18-3435% / 38%Roberts +3
Moderate35% / 38%Roberts +3
Smith leads across 65+, conservative, and male voters. Closing the gap with moderates and 18-34 is critical.
Vote Intensity
Smith (R) -- 43%
Def vote: 28% Prob vote: 10% Lean toward: 5%
65% hard commit (Def+Prob)
Roberts (D) -- 40%
Def vote: 24% Prob vote: 11% Lean toward: 5%
60% hard commit (Def+Prob)
Crosstab Breakdown
Demographic
Smith (R)
Roberts (D)
Franklin (I)
Undecided
Most Important Issues
What is the most important issue facing your community today?
Partisan Issue Gap
EconomyR32%|D20%|I28%
ImmigrationR16%|D14%|I22%
HealthcareR12%|D18%|I10%
Economy dominates across all segments. Immigration indexes highest with Independents -- a key persuasion opportunity.
Crosstab Breakdown
Demographic
Economy
Immigr.
Health
Educ.
Crime
Taxes
Enviro.
Other
Message Testing
After hearing each message, are you more or less likely to support the candidate?
More Likely
No Difference
Less Likely
Regression Analysis
Message
Coeff
SE
p
Sig
Tax Cuts
0.412
0.087
0.001
***
Border Crisis
0.381
0.091
0.003
***
Bureaucrats
0.294
0.094
0.012
**
Antisemitism
0.227
0.102
0.026
**
Tariffs
-0.048
0.098
0.624
n.s.
Dom. Drilling
0.011
0.099
0.912
n.s.
Double Talk
-0.102
0.096
0.287
n.s.
*** p < 0.01 ** p < 0.05 n.s. = not significant
Informed Ballot
Ballot after message exposure
Smith (R)
47%
Roberts (D)
38%
Franklin (I)
3%
Undecided
12%
Smith +4Roberts -2Undec -2
Top Performers
Highest "more likely" responses
Tax Cuts53%
Border Crisis50%
Bureaucrats49%
Information Flow Analysis
Three-question battery: penetration, channel, and impact
Message Penetration
OursOpp
+40 pts
Our growth
+13 pts
Advantage (Jan)
Channel Penetration
TVMailDigitalOther
Channel
Aug
Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Chg
TV/Cable
12%
19%
28%
34%
38%
+26
Mail
8%
14%
22%
27%
31%
+23
Social/Digital
10%
16%
21%
24%
28%
+18
Other
5%
7%
9%
11%
12%
+7
Our Impact
Net +26
44% more / 18% less
Opponent Impact
Net -8
24% more / 32% less
Trend Analysis
Tracking key metrics across 6 survey waves -- June 2025 through January 2026
Study design, data collection, and quality assurance
Sample Size
n = 1,570 Likely Voters
Field Dates
January 15-19, 2026
Margin of Error
+/-2.5% at 95% CI
Mode
IVR / Online Mixed
Avg. Length
14.2 minutes
Geography
Statewide
Universe
Reg. Voters w/ LV Screen
Language
English and Spanish
Sponsor
Sample Campaign Cmte
Response Rate
8.4% (AAPOR RR3)
Weighting & Quality
Data weighted to match expected electorate by party, gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geography using iterative raking. LV screen used self-reported vote intention, past vote history, and stated interest.
Design Effect:1.18
Max Weight:3.2x
Completion:92.1%
Speeders Removed:3.8%
Sample Demographics
Demographic
Sample
Target
Republican
36%
35%
Democrat
34%
34%
Indep / Other
30%
31%
Female
52%
53%
Male
48%
47%
18-34
18%
17%
35-44
16%
16%
45-54
19%
19%
55-64
21%
22%
65+
26%
26%
White
62%
63%
Black
14%
13%
Hispanic
16%
16%
Other
8%
8%
Urban
34%
33%
Suburban
42%
43%
Rural
24%
24%
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Predictive Voter Modeling
Survey-grounded targeting at scale
SURVEY
1,500+ voters surveyed
Real opinions, not assumptions
PROFILE
500+ data points matched
Demographics, psychographics, consumer behavior
SCORE
Every voter scored 0-100
Individual-level predictions
ACTIVATE
Targetable universes delivered
Mail, digital, phones, doors
Survey Sample
1,500 voters surveyed
Target group identified by response pattern
Statistical modeling applied
Full Voter File
0
matching voters identified out of 650K in the district
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Target Segments
Example model types and scoring ranges
Persuadable Voters
Swing voters movable on your issues
040-65100
Message Movers
Most responsive to your specific messaging
055-80100
Issue Models
Pro-2A, pro-life, green energy, education
0varies100
Mobilization Targets
Supporters who need turnout motivation
070-95100
Opponent Soft Support
Opposition voters showing vulnerability
025-45100
"Most targeting starts with demographics and guesses what voters think. We start with what voters actually tell us -- then find everyone like them."
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