co/efficient – Product Demo

The fastest way to measure public opinion

Data-driven insights. Human-powered strategy.

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Polling & Research

Benchmark studies, tracking polls, and issue research

Modeling & Analytics

Predictive models and voter targeting

Voter Contact

SMS, video texting, and digital town halls

Standard Benchmark Study

Sample Campaign | January 15-19, 2026 | n=1,570 Likely Voters | MoE +/-2.5%

Candidate Images

Favorability ratings for tested candidates

Favorable

Unsure

Never Heard

Unfavorable

Net Favorability

Johnson

Anderson

Smith

Roberts

-3

Franklin

-2

Ballot Scores

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?

Smith (R)

43%

Roberts (D)

40%

Franklin (I)

Undecided

14%

Crosstab Breakdown

Demographic	Smith (R)	Roberts (D)	Franklin (I)	Undecided

Most Important Issues

What is the most important issue facing your community today?

Crosstab Breakdown

Demographic	Economy	Immigr.	Health	Educ.	Crime	Taxes	Enviro.	Other

Message Testing

After hearing each message, are you more or less likely to support the candidate?

More Likely

No Difference

Less Likely

Top Performing Messages

53%

Tax Cuts

More Likely to Support

50%

Border Crisis

More Likely to Support

49%

Bureaucrats

More Likely to Support

Regression Analysis

Message effects on vote choice (logistic regression coefficients)

Message	Coefficient	Std Error	p-value	Significance
Tax Cuts	0.412	0.087	0.001	***
Border Crisis	0.381	0.091	0.003	***
Bureaucrats	0.294	0.094	0.012	**
Antisemitism	0.227	0.102	0.026	**
Tariffs	-0.048	0.098	0.624	n.s.
Domestic Drilling	0.011	0.099	0.912	n.s.
Double Talk	-0.102	0.096	0.287	n.s.

*** p < 0.01 ** p < 0.05 n.s. = not significant

Informed Ballot

Ballot numbers after message exposure (movement from initial ballot)

Smith (R)

47%

Roberts (D)

38%

Franklin (I)

Undecided

12%

Smith: 43% -> 47% (+4)

Roberts: 40% -> 38% (-2)

Undecided: 14% -> 12% (-2)

Information Flow

Where do you get most of your political news and information?

Crosstab Breakdown

Demographic	Local TV	Social	Cable	Online	Radio	Print	Friends

Trend Analysis

Key metrics tracked across three survey waves

Candidate Favorability

Oct 2025

58%

Dec 2025

60%

Jan 2026

62%

+4 pts since Wave 1

Opponent Favorability

Oct 2025

44%

Dec 2025

42%

Jan 2026

41%

-3 pts since Wave 1

Horse Race Lead

Oct 2025

Dec 2025

Jan 2026

+2 pts growth in lead

Right Direction

Oct 2025

38%

Dec 2025

40%

Jan 2026

42%

+4 pts since Wave 1

Methodology

Study design and data collection details

Sample Size

n = 1,570 Likely Voters

Field Dates

January 15-19, 2026

Margin of Error

+/-2.5% at 95% Confidence

Mode

IVR / Online Mixed Mode

Geography

Statewide

Universe

Registered Voters with Likely Voter Screen

Language

English and Spanish

Sponsor

Sample Campaign Committee

Sample Demographics

Demographic	Sample %
Republican	36%
Democrat	34%
Independent / Other	30%
Female	52%
Male	48%
18-34	18%
35-44	16%
45-54	19%
55-64	21%
65+	26%
White	62%
Black	14%
Hispanic	16%
Other	8%

Weighting Note

Data were weighted to match the expected electorate by party registration, gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geography using iterative proportional fitting (raking). The likely voter screen incorporated self-reported vote intention, past vote history, and stated interest level. All percentages reported are among likely voters unless otherwise noted.

Methodology

Study design and data collection details

Sample Size

n = 1,570 Likely Voters

Field Dates

January 15-19, 2026

Margin of Error

+/-2.5% at 95% Confidence

Mode

IVR / Online Mixed Mode

Geography

Statewide

Universe

Registered Voters with Likely Voter Screen

Language

English and Spanish

Sponsor

Sample Campaign Committee

Sample Demographics

Demographic	Sample %
Republican	36%
Democrat	34%
Independent / Other	30%
Female	52%
Male	48%
18-34	18%
35-44	16%
45-54	19%
55-64	21%
65+	26%
White	62%
Black	14%
Hispanic	16%
Other	8%

Weighting Note

Predictive Modeling & Analytics

Voter segmentation, targeting models, and contact universe optimization

Voter Segmentation Model

Five-segment propensity model based on voter file, consumer data, and prior election results

18%

22%

20%

24%

16%

Strong Support Lean Support Persuadable Lean Oppose Strong Oppose

Contact Universe

Persuasion Universe

284K

Lean Support + Persuadable voters targeted for messaging

Mobilization Universe

196K

Strong Support voters targeted for turnout operations

Total Contacts Needed

480K

Combined universes for full campaign contact program

Model Performance

94%

AUC Score

Model Accuracy

Data Sources

Integrated Inputs

147

Features

Predictive Variables

3.2M

Voter Records

Statewide File

Voter Contact Programs

Multi-channel outreach solutions for campaigns and organizations

Hi! Early voting starts Monday. Do you have a plan to vote?

Yes, planning to go Tuesday morning

Great! Your polling place is Lincoln Community Center, open 7am-7pm. See you there!

P2P Texting

Fully managed MMS, SMS, and video texting programs with real-time analytics and compliance monitoring.

2.4M messages delivered

94% delivery rate

12% response rate

LIVE

Teletown Hall - District 7

12,847

PARTICIPANTS CONNECTED

Q&A Queue: 23 questions pending

Virtual Events

Teletown halls and mobile live stream town halls with live Q&A moderation and real-time participant management.

50K+ participants hosted

Avg 28 min engagement

Live Q&A moderation

Connected - 04:32

Patch-Through Active

Managed Phones

Live calls, robocalls, and patch-through calls to elected officials with full program management.

1.2M calls completed

Patch-through to officials

Live + automated

UNIVERSE BUILDER

Data Management

Building and maintaining campaign universe lists for execution across mail, digital, door knocking, and phones.

3.2M voter records

Multi-channel targeting

Mail, digital, doors, phones