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Benchmark studies, tracking polls, and issue research

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Predictive models and voter targeting

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SMS, video texting, and digital town halls

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Benchmark Study
Sample Campaign  |  January 15-19, 2026  |  n=1,570 Likely Voters  |  MoE +/-2.5%
Candidate Images
Favorability ratings for tested candidates
Favorable
Unsure
Never Heard
Unfavorable
Net Favorability
Johnson+7
Anderson+7
Smith+3
Franklin-2
Roberts-3
Ballot Scores
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Initial Ballot
Smith (R)
43%
Roberts (D)
40%
Franklin (I)
3%
Undecided
14%
Smith +3
Outside margin of error
Crosstab Breakdown
DemographicSmith (R)Roberts (D)Franklin (I)Undecided
Most Important Issues
What is the most important issue facing your community today?
Crosstab Breakdown
DemographicEconomyImmigr.HealthEduc.CrimeTaxesEnviro.Other
Message Testing
After hearing each message, are you more or less likely to support the candidate?
More Likely
No Difference
Less Likely
Regression Analysis
MessageCoeffSEpSig
Tax Cuts0.4120.0870.001***
Border Crisis0.3810.0910.003***
Bureaucrats0.2940.0940.012**
Antisemitism0.2270.1020.026**
Tariffs-0.0480.0980.624n.s.
Dom. Drilling0.0110.0990.912n.s.
Double Talk-0.1020.0960.287n.s.

*** p < 0.01   ** p < 0.05   n.s. = not significant

Informed Ballot
Ballot after message exposure
Smith (R)
47%
Roberts (D)
38%
Franklin (I)
3%
Undecided
12%
Smith +4 Roberts -2 Undec -2
Top Performers
Highest "more likely" responses
Tax Cuts53%
Border Crisis50%
Bureaucrats49%
Information Flow Analysis
Three-question battery: penetration, channel, and impact
Message Penetration
Ours Opp
20% 40% 60% 80% Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan 28% 38% 52% 61% 68% 22% 31% 40% 48% 55%
+40 pts
Our growth
+13 pts
Advantage (Jan)
Channel Penetration
TV Mail Digital Other
ChannelAugSepNovDecJanChg
TV/Cable12%19%28%34%38%+26
Mail8%14%22%27%31%+23
Social/Digital10%16%21%24%28%+18
Other5%7%9%11%12%+7
Our Impact
Less More
Net +26
44% more / 18% less
Opponent Impact
Less More
Net -8
24% more / 32% less
Trend Analysis
Tracking key metrics across 6 survey waves -- June 2025 through January 2026
Horse Race Ballot Trend
Smith (R) Roberts (D) Undecided
20% 30% 40% 50% Jun '25 Aug '25 Sep '25 Nov '25 Dec '25 Jan '26 36% 38% 39% 41% 42% 43% 37% 38% 39% 40% 40% 40% +3
Candidate Fav
JunJan
52% 62%
+10 pts
Opponent Unfav
JunJan
36% 44%
+8 pts (rising negatives)
Right Direction
JunJan
33% 42%
+9 pts
Wave Summary
Smith: 36% -> 43% +7 Roberts: 37% -> 40% +3 Margin: -1 -> +3 Undecided: 27% -> 17% -10
Methodology
Study design and data collection details
Sample Size
n = 1,570 Likely Voters
Field Dates
January 15-19, 2026
Margin of Error
+/-2.5% at 95% CI
Mode
IVR / Online Mixed
Geography
Statewide
Universe
Reg. Voters w/ LV Screen
Language
English and Spanish
Sponsor
Sample Campaign Cmte
Sample Demographics
Demographic%
Republican36%
Democrat34%
Indep / Other30%
Female52%
Male48%
18-3418%
35-4416%
45-5419%
55-6421%
65+26%
White62%
Black14%
Hispanic16%
Other8%
Weighting Note

Data weighted to match expected electorate by party, gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geography using raking. LV screen used self-reported vote intention, past vote history, and stated interest. All percentages among likely voters unless noted.

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Predictive Voter Modeling
Survey-grounded targeting at scale
SURVEY
1,500+ voters surveyed
Real opinions, not assumptions
PROFILE
500+ data points matched
Demographics, psychographics, consumer behavior
SCORE
Every voter scored 0-100
Individual-level predictions
ACTIVATE
Targetable universes delivered
Mail, digital, phones, doors
Survey Sample
1,500 voters surveyed
Target group identified by response pattern
Statistical modeling applied
Full Voter File
0
matching voters identified out of 650K in the district
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Target Segments
Example model types and scoring ranges
Persuadable Voters
Swing voters movable on your issues
040-65100
Message Movers
Most responsive to your specific messaging
055-80100
Issue Models
Pro-2A, pro-life, green energy, education
0varies100
Mobilization Targets
Supporters who need turnout motivation
070-95100
Opponent Soft Support
Opposition voters showing vulnerability
025-45100
"Most targeting starts with demographics and guesses what voters think. We start with what voters actually tell us -- then find everyone like them."
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Voter Contact Programs
Multi-channel outreach solutions for campaigns and organizations
VIDEO MESSAGE
Watch our 30-sec HD video ad -- delivered directly to your phone. No links, no clicks, no Big Tech gatekeepers.
Delivered via MMS

P2P Texting

Industry-leading peer-to-peer texting with the reach and flexibility to meet any campaign where voters are.
MMS
SMS
HD Video
Fully Managed
Self Service
Best in Class
Live + Automated + Events
Teletown Halls / Livestreaming

Managed Phones & Events

Full-service phone programs and virtual events that put your campaign directly in voters' hands.
Live Calls
Automated Calls
Teletown Halls
Mobile Livestreaming Events
Patch-throughs

Campaign Technology

From concept to launch in days, not months -- custom-built digital solutions that move as fast as your campaign.
Campaign Websites
Custom Landing Pages
Fundraising Destinations
Voter Activation Tools
Custom Solutions
UNIVERSE BUILDER

Data Management

The foundation of every winning contact plan -- precision-built voter universes ready for activation across every channel.
Universe Building
List Maintenance
Mail
Digital
Door Knocking
Phone Programs
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